The way ahead for transport

The impact of the global financial crisis on the aviation, rail and shipping sectors

In response to the wave of bad news and poor results from companies in the aviation, rail and shipping sectors following the global financial crisis of late 2008, we decided to initiate The Way Ahead Survey, timed to coincide with the first signs of improving confidence.

Our aim has been to try to find out how participants in these sectors view the short to medium term future, but more specifically their strategy for managing the impact of the crisis. We identified the principal elements of strategy as involving the sourcing of finance through debt, investment or cash; co-operation in joint ventures or other business combinations and consolidation by merger or acquisition.

The survey results allow us to analyse the effects on each sector within the industry, to understand which are the most resistant to the economic downturn and which are most likely to recover fastest. Unsurprisingly, responses were tinged with realism, if not pragmatism; the global financial crisis has clearly had a profound effect on the transportation sector as a whole.

Aviation sector respondents appear to be the least positive about the current business environment. The sector has been forced to contend with a series of challenging issues, including the lack of available financing, fluctuations in fuel costs and the reduction in premium and leisure travellers.

Rail sector respondents are substantially more positive, thanks to the high level of government support and reasonably consistent passenger numbers.

Shipping respondents appear to be the biggest victims of the drop in global trade, while also suffering from the lack of available financing. Container shipping and dry bulk carriers are regarded as the most affected sectors within the shipping industry.

The survey naturally confirms some widely held views, but also produces a number of unexpected findings. We hope that you find it both interesting and informative.